Good Morning Traders! In today's Morning Memo, we will discuss NQ, ES, SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA.
Our proprietary formula, exclusive to RIPS, dictates these price levels. This dynamic equation takes into account price, volume, and options flow. These levels are updated every day and shared with our community, prior to the opening of the market.
We recommend closely monitoring these stocks, and be prepared to leverage potential breakouts or reversals. As always, stay alert and ready to adjust your tactics based on the market's pulse to optimize your trading gains. Now, let's dive into the stock analysis:
E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (CME: NQ)
NQ is currently trading around 29716.25, down about 0.9 percent from Wednesday's close after Alphabet's earnings sent tech futures lower overnight. The futures briefly slipped under Wednesday's 29674.25 low before recovering, so that low is the first reference to watch. Holding above it keeps NQ inside Wednesday's range, with Wednesday's 30178.00 high marking the top. NQ is also trading below its gamma flip near 30136.50, and below that line ranges have tended to be wider and moves can run further, so bigger swings would not be surprising today. Rips trades NQ live at 8AM ET, so tune in to see how he plays the open.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures (CME: ES)
ES is currently trading around 7767.50, a much smaller dip than NQ, and still inside Wednesday's range after briefly trading under Wednesday's 7750.25 low overnight. Buyers want to keep price above 7750.25, while a push back toward Wednesday's 7819.50 high would put the index back on its front foot. ES is sitting just under its gamma flip near 7776.00, and below the flip ranges have tended to be wider, while trading above it has tended to bring calmer sessions. With growth and inflation data landing at 8:30AM ET, catch the live show for the full market read as the open develops.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY)
SPY is currently trading around 770.75, a little below Wednesday's 772.31 close as weakness in big tech weighs on the morning. Wednesday's 769.24 low sits just underneath, so the first job for buyers is defending that area. If they do and price reclaims 772.31, Wednesday's 773.36 high is the next hurdle, and above that, 774.44, the October 21 high, marks the top of the recent range. Wednesday's options flow showed the heaviest net call buying at the 770 strike, right where price is sitting now.
If SPY breaks below 769.24 and cannot recover, 767.73, Monday's high, is the next shelf. Below that, Tuesday's 765.21 low lines up with the 765 strike, one of the heaviest open interest strikes near price, and losing it would put this week's bounce in doubt. A return above 772.31 would weaken the downside scenario. Share volume has run well below its recent average all week, so watch whether the morning data finally brings more participation in either direction.
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: QQQ)
QQQ is currently trading around 719.25, down roughly 0.9 percent and gapping below Wednesday's 720.30 low as Alphabet drags on the Nasdaq. The first test for buyers is reclaiming 720.30. If they do and hold it, price may work back toward 721.25, Tuesday's close, and then 722.87, Tuesday's high. Above that, the 725 strike, one of the heaviest open interest strikes on the board, sits right next to Wednesday's 725.61 close, and getting back there would mean the entire gap has been recovered.
If QQQ stays under 720.30, the downside references start at 715.25, Monday's high, and 713.59, Tuesday's low. Below there, Monday's 712.20 close and the 710 strike, the heaviest open interest strike near price, form a deeper area worth watching closely. Losing 710.00 without a quick recovery would erase most of this week's rebound. A return above 722.87 would weaken the downside scenario. With Microsoft sharply higher and Alphabet sharply lower, the tug of war between the index's biggest weights should set the tone.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)
AAPL is currently trading around 348.25, up about 1.3 percent and already above Wednesday's 347.18 high and Tuesday's 347.78 high, making it one of the firmer megacaps this morning. If buyers defend that 347.78 area, the next reference is 348.36, the October 22 high, followed by the 350 strike, the second heaviest open interest strike on Apple's board. Clearing 350.00 and holding it would open a path toward 351.73, the October 23 high and the top of the recent range.
If AAPL slips back under 347.10, Tuesday's close, the premarket gain starts to unwind, and the 345 strike, which sits close to the October 23 low at 345.75, becomes the next area to defend. Below that, Wednesday's 343.83 close and 343.52 low mark where this morning's gap began. A return above 348.36 would weaken the downside scenario. Apple reports quarterly results after the close next Monday, November 2, so the stock may start trading on expectations as the week wraps up.
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT)
MSFT is currently trading around 546.50, up about 2.9 percent after quarterly results beat expectations and the company guided next quarter's revenue to between 96.0 and 97.1 billion dollars. Spending on data centers also came in below estimates, which eased some cost worries. Price is gapping well above Wednesday's 535.00 high and sitting just above the October 14 high at 545.75. If buyers defend 545.75, the next chart reference is 551.15, the October 13 high and the top of the past three months of trading, with the 555 strike, one of the heaviest call strikes, just beyond it.
If MSFT slips back below 545.75 and cannot recover, 543.82, the October 16 high, and 543.45, the October 13 close, are the first areas to watch. Below that sits the 540 strike, where Wednesday's flow showed the heaviest net call buying at about 2.3 million dollars, and a fade to that area would give back much of the earnings gap. A return above 545.75 would weaken the downside scenario.
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)
AMZN is currently trading around 252.00, down about 1.0 percent and sitting just above Wednesday's 251.98 low ahead of its quarterly report after the close today. If buyers defend that low, the first upside references are 253.10, Tuesday's close, and the 254.60 to 254.68 area, where Wednesday closed and Tuesday topped out. Clearing that zone and holding it would put Wednesday's 255.36 high back in play. Wednesday's options activity leaned toward calls, with the largest net call buying at the 240 and 250 strikes.
If AMZN breaks below 251.98 and cannot recover, the 250 strike, one of the heavier open interest strikes and a spot that also saw net put buying Wednesday, is the next area to watch. Below that, Tuesday's 248.71 low and the October 23 low at 246.45 mark the bottom of the recent range. A return above 253.10 would weaken the downside scenario. Because the report lands after the bell, the regular session may trade cautiously, and the bigger reaction could come tonight once results are out.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
NVDA is currently trading around 214.50, slightly lower and sitting right on Wednesday's 214.47 low as chip stocks soften alongside Alphabet. If buyers defend that area, the first recovery level is the 215 strike, a heavy open interest strike that lines up with Wednesday's 215.38 close. Above that, the 217.50 strike sits just under Tuesday's 217.94 close, and the 220 strike, the heaviest strike close to price, lines up with Wednesday's 219.99 high near the top of the recent range.
If NVDA breaks below 214.47 and cannot recover, Monday's 212.61 low is the next reference, followed by 211.26, the October 22 low, and 210.18, the October 23 low, which sits near the 210 strike, one of the heaviest put strikes. Losing that area would push the stock below last week's lows. A return above 215.38 would weaken the downside scenario. Wednesday's flow showed the heaviest net call selling at the 220 strike, so that level has drawn plenty of options activity.
Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
GOOGL is currently trading around 292.00, down about 10 percent after quarterly revenue came in below Wall Street expectations on weaker search sales, even as cloud sales soared. The gap leaves Wednesday's 322.66 low far overhead, so the nearby references now come from early April. If buyers defend this area, the first recovery levels are 295.18, the April 6 low, and 297.39 to 298.08, where the stock closed on April 1 and topped out on April 2. Above that, the 300 strike, the heaviest put strike, lines up with the April highs at 300.52 and 300.62.
If GOOGL loses the April 1 low at 290.41 and the 290 strike just beneath it, where put positioning is also heavy, the April 2 low at 289.45 is the next reference, and below that sits 287.95, the March 26 high. A return above 300.00 would weaken the downside scenario. Moves after an earnings gap this large can be wide in both directions, and the stock is a major drag on QQQ and NQ this morning.
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META)
META is currently trading around 617.50, up about 0.8 percent and holding inside Wednesday's range after a steep slide over the past week. The first test overhead is the 619.21 to 620.19 area, Tuesday's low and close. If buyers reclaim 620.19 and hold, Wednesday's 624.42 high and the 625 strike, one of the heaviest open interest strikes, come next, with Tuesday's 628.46 high beyond that. Getting back above that cluster would be the first real sign the selling has paused.
If META fades back under Wednesday's 612.49 close and then loses the 610 strike and Wednesday's 609.00 low, the next references are 605.27, the September 4 low, and 604.35, the September 3 low. Below those, the 600 strike, the heaviest put strike near price, lines up with the September 2 high at 600.38. A return above 620.19 would weaken the downside scenario. Meta has fallen about 12 percent since its October 21 report as investors weigh its heavier AI spending.
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)
TSLA is currently trading around 403.50, just under Wednesday's 404.22 close after Wednesday's session swung from a 410.85 high down to a 397.18 low. If buyers reclaim 404.22 and hold it, price may work back toward 407.46, Tuesday's close, and 408.45, Tuesday's high. Above that, the 410 strike sits right next to Wednesday's 410.85 high, and clearing that area would bring the 420 strike, the heaviest call strike on Tesla's board, into view.
If TSLA slips under the 400 strike, a level with heavy open interest and the most net put buying in Wednesday's flow at about 1.5 million dollars, the next references are 397.27, Monday's high, and 397.18, Wednesday's low. Below that, Tuesday's 395.25 low near the 395 strike and Monday's 391.62 close mark the base of this week's breakout. A return above 404.22 would weaken the downside scenario. Tesla has been one of the strongest Magnificent 7 names in October, so how it holds up on a weak tech morning is worth watching.
Final Word: Today's main event is the GDP and PCE Inflation Reports at 8:30AM ET. The first estimate of third quarter growth is expected around 3.2 percent after 2.2 percent in the second quarter, and the same release brings September's PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with core prices expected to rise 0.3 percent for the month. Personal income, spending and weekly jobless claims arrive at the same time. Strong growth paired with hot inflation could push yields higher, which tends to pressure stocks, while cooler inflation would help. The European Central Bank also announces its rate decision this morning.
Overnight, Alphabet's revenue miss is weighing on tech, with GOOGL down about 10 percent premarket and NQ lagging ES. Among the Magnificent 7, MSFT is leading with a gain of nearly 3 percent, AAPL and META are also higher, and AMZN, NVDA and TSLA are slightly lower. The Fed held rates steady Wednesday, and after Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference markets still lean toward a hike in December. The 10 year Treasury yield has slipped back below 5 percent, and Brent crude eased to around 114.50 dollars a barrel on hopes of renewed talks with Iran.
Amazon reports after the close today, and Apple follows next Monday. Watch whether SPY can hold Wednesday's 769.24 low and whether QQQ can reclaim 720.30 after the data, and pay attention to volume, which has been light all week. If buyers step in on the first pullback and Microsoft holds its gap, the damage from Alphabet may stay contained. Good luck, trade safely, and have a great Thursday!
You can catch Rips every Monday through Friday at 8AM ET streaming live for FREE on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/@RipsTrades and on Kick at https://kick.com/rips where he breaks down the markets in real time and helps traders level up.