Good Morning Traders! In today's RIPS Morning Memo, we will discuss SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA.
Our proprietary formula, exclusive to Market Clubhouse, dictates these price levels. This dynamic equation takes into account price, volume, and options flow. These levels are updated every day and shared with all Clubhouse Members, prior to the opening of the market.
We recommend closely monitoring these stocks, and be prepared to leverage potential breakouts or reversals. As always, stay alert and ready to adjust your tactics based on the market's pulse to optimize your trading gains. Now, let's dive into the stock analysis:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY)
SPY is currently trading around 759.25 as markets arrive at the highly anticipated FOMC decision with a 25 basis point rate hike overwhelmingly priced into expectations. The morning still brings meaningful Retail Sales and inflation related data, but today's defining catalyst arrives at 2:00PM ET followed by Chair Warsh at 2:30PM ET. If buyers defend 759.25, a move toward 765.25 may develop, followed by 771.25 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 777.25 would materially improve the short term structure.
If SPY loses 759.25 with conviction, sellers may press into 753.25. A breakdown there could expose 747.25, while continued weakness may bring the 741.25 region into focus. With approximately 92.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike, the market's reaction could depend far more on the statement and Warsh's characterization of future policy than the expected rate increase itself.
Expect potentially very different moves at 2:00PM and 2:30PM ET. The initial statement can trigger an immediate repricing, but Warsh's answers during the press conference can reverse or accelerate that move as traders refine expectations for the next several meetings.
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: QQQ)
QQQ is currently trading around 708.00 and should be one of the most rate-sensitive areas of the market during today's FOMC decision. If buyers defend this pivot, price may advance toward 715.00, followed by 722.00 if momentum strengthens. Sustained strength above 729.00 would indicate improving institutional demand and begin repairing the recent short term weakness.
If 708.00 fails to hold, sellers may drive price toward 701.50. A deeper breakdown could expose 695.00, while continued weakness may bring the 688.50 region into play. Treasury yields should provide an important confirmation signal: a less hawkish policy outlook accompanied by falling yields could support growth stocks, while indications of additional tightening could pressure technology even if today's 25 basis point hike is fully expected.
Watch semiconductor and mega cap breadth during the post-Fed move. A QQQ rally supported by NVDA, MSFT, and broader technology participation would carry considerably more weight than an index move driven by only a handful of names.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)
AAPL is currently trading around 331.25 and continues to demonstrate considerable relative strength heading into the Fed decision. If buyers defend this pivot, price may rotate toward 336.50, followed by 341.75 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 347.00 would reinforce the bullish short term structure.
If 331.25 breaks lower, sellers may test 326.25 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 321.25, while deeper weakness may bring the 316.25 region into focus. Continued outperformance through today's rate volatility would provide another constructive indication of institutional demand.
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT)
MSFT is currently trading around 495.75 and remains directly beneath the psychologically important 500 level heading into a major rates catalyst. If buyers reclaim and establish acceptance above 500, price may advance toward 503.00, followed by 510.25 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 517.50 would materially improve the short term structure.
If 495.75 fails to hold, sellers may press into 488.75. A deeper pullback could test 481.75, while continued weakness may bring the 474.75 region into play. Today's FOMC reaction could determine whether 500 transitions back into support or continues functioning as overhead resistance.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
NVDA is currently trading around 213.25 and remains an important leadership gauge for semiconductors and the broader technology complex. If buyers defend this pivot, a move toward 220.25 may develop, followed by 227.25 if momentum strengthens. Sustained trade above 234.25 would materially improve the short term structure and indicate renewed semiconductor participation.
If 213.25 fails to hold, sellers may test 207.25 quickly. Continued downside could bring the psychological 200 area into focus, followed by 194.25 if selling accelerates. Given NVDA's sensitivity to rates and risk appetite, the reaction in Treasury yields following Warsh's press conference should be particularly important.
Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
GOOGL is currently trading around 345.75 and continues attempting to stabilize following its extended period of relative weakness. If buyers defend this level, price may rotate toward 352.25, followed by 358.75 if momentum improves. Sustained strength above 365.25 would indicate a more meaningful recovery.
If 345.75 fails to hold, sellers may guide price toward 339.75. A breakdown there could expose 333.75, while continued weakness may bring the 327.75 region into play. A favorable Fed reaction accompanied by continued GOOGL underperformance would reinforce the presence of stock-specific selling pressure.
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META)
META is currently trading around 669.00 and remains one of the strongest mega cap names heading into today's Fed decision. If buyers defend this pivot, a push toward 677.00 may develop, followed by 685.00 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 693.00 would reinforce the bullish structure and continued institutional demand.
If 669.00 breaks lower, sellers may guide price toward 661.50. A deeper pullback could test 654.00, while continued weakness may bring the 646.50 region into focus. META's ability to maintain relative strength through a major rates catalyst should provide a useful read on institutional conviction.
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)
TSLA is currently trading around 357.25 and continues to consolidate within its recent recovery structure. If buyers defend this pivot, a move toward 365.75 may develop, followed by 374.25 if momentum continues. Sustained strength above 382.75 would reinforce bullish momentum and indicate stronger speculative demand.
If 357.25 fails to hold, sellers may test 349.25 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 341.25, while deeper weakness may bring the 333.25 region into play. TSLA can amplify broad risk-on and risk-off moves, making today's Fed-driven changes in yields and sentiment particularly relevant.
Final Word: Today's economic calendar brings us the highly anticipated FOMC interest rate decision at 2:00PM ET, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30PM ET. Markets currently assign approximately a 92.5% probability to a 25 basis point rate hike, making the increase itself heavily anticipated. The more important question is likely to be what the Fed communicates about the path from here: whether today's move represents a limited adjustment or whether policymakers believe additional tightening may be necessary.
Before the Fed, markets still have an important 8:30AM ET data window. August Advance Retail Sales, the Retail Sales Control Group, New York Fed Services Activity, and Import and Export Prices all arrive simultaneously. Retail Sales will provide an important read on consumer strength, while the control group carries additional significance because it feeds into estimates of consumer spending within GDP. A major surprise could move Treasury yields and alter the backdrop heading into the afternoon decision, although traders may be reluctant to make large commitments before the Fed.
At 2:00PM ET, the market will immediately parse the rate decision and accompanying statement for changes in language surrounding inflation, employment, growth, and future policy. But the potentially more important event begins thirty minutes later. During Warsh's 2:30PM ET press conference, traders will be looking for clues about whether further hikes remain likely, how concerned the Fed is about persistent inflation, and what conditions would be required to pause or reverse course. With the hike so heavily priced, an expected 25 basis point increase accompanied by less hawkish guidance could actually push Treasury yields lower and support equities. The same hike paired with a clear willingness to tighten further could produce the opposite reaction.
FOMC sessions frequently produce multiple directional moves rather than one clean reaction. The initial 2:00PM algorithmic move can reverse when the press conference begins, and another adjustment can occur as Warsh answers questions and markets refine the expected path of policy. Traders should therefore be especially careful about chasing the first move. Watch the 2 Year and 10 Year Treasury yields, the dollar, technology breadth, and whether price establishes genuine acceptance after the press conference for confirmation of the market's final interpretation. Good luck and trade safely!
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